Response to the supreme leader's sermon

However as in normal times and ever more so this time, most of the attendees were drafted i.e. bussed in from all around the country without any significant spontaneous participation by ordinary Tehranis where the sermon took place. Most of the attendees were members of the armed forces (Iran’s combined armed forces exceeds one million according to official government declarations), the establishment and their relatives and dependents.
While the general Iranian public was anxiously awaiting the sermon, most of the people asking for reform were already pessimistic that the leader would give any ground and support their quest for reform and nullify the results, albeit they had a sliver of hope that he may make some concessions. Mostly people are worried that he will finally unleash the full force of the armed forces on the demonstrators. At the end of the sermon, the supreme leader implied that if there would be any more public demonstrations, those in charge of the regime will react accordingly and whatever the consequences would be the responsibility of those who instigated the demonstrations.
While part of the leader’s sermon were ground breaking as for example he publicly acknowledged significant differences of opinion within the establishment, between him and Hashemi-Rafsanjani and he did softly chastecize Ahmadinejad (without naming him) for disrespecting some of the members of the revolution during the campaign, his sermon was more or less the norm of the past of blaming foreign interference and arguing that the people of Iran are free and human rights are respected.
Initial response to the supreme leaders Friday sermon:
Tellingly the reform camp (Mousavi and Karoubi) has not issued any direct response to the supreme leader’s sermon yet (they had previously called off any rallies on Friday). However they still plan to go ahead with demonstrations on Saturday which will involve representatives of a clergy group supporting the reform camp (Rouhanioune-mobarez). The reform camp appears to insist on its demand for nullification of the vote and has more or less rejected the supreme leader’s demand to refrain from further demonstrations, and accept the final outcome of Ahmadinejad being re-elected. If the reform camp does indeed go ahead with demonstration on Saturday it would be the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that a direct publicized order of the supreme leader (via a Friday sermon) has been publicly defied. The government has refused to grant a permit for the demonstration (to be held at 4:00 PM Tehran time on Saturday), however the previous demonstrations also did not receive the required permits and the opposition still went ahead with them
Here are excerpts of Iranian’s reactions to the sermon:
On Facebook just as the speech finished one person (most likely an Iranian residing abroad) has posted:
“Now we have to decide… Either let go of our land forever, or fight for it with everything we have!
Mr.Mousavi, what’s you plan now? You do not have ANY support from this regime from now on.”
On Twitter one of the most twit messages has been:
The situation in Iran is now CRITICAL - the nation is heartbroken - suppression is iminent -
The following are comments from Tehran residents gathered via e-mail:
“The supreme leader is a liar and fake pretender who is not willing to acknowledge the views of his own people and still insists on blaming the US and Europe to cover up for his own failure.”
“How could people trust and believe in a leader who directly overturned people’s votes and is not even willing to tell them the truth?”
“They are willing to tell lies and do whatever it takes to sustain their own power”
One major concern echoed in the blogosphere is that the government is playing for time, while taking prisoners and subjecting them to torture so that it could demoralize and terrorize the opposition to gradual submission.
Another concern is that unless Mousavi backs down now, a Tiananmen-style attack by the armed forces is the most feared probable outcome. However given the backing of Hashemi-Rafsanjani, and some leading clergy (Ayatollah Zanjani, Ayatollah Sanei and Ayatollah Montazeri), the reform camp does have some influential support thus questioning how far would the armed forces be willing to push their might. There are also various factions within the armed forces and their paramilitary counterparts, and while a majority of them are thought to support Ahmadinejad, the level of support is not known. What role Rezai, one of the disenfranchised presidential candidates and a former revolutionary guard commander will play will also be crucial. There are already unconfirmed reports (via Twitter) that the revolutionary guard has been mobilized to deal with Tehran. And there are also other unconfirmed reports that some guard commanders have refused to deploy against the civilian population.
There has already been blood, and there will be more blood to come. But how much more, no one knows.